Not too long ago, Mario Wynands, a Sidhe developer, made a huge fuss when he posted on NeoGAF stating that the Wii U was in 'serious trouble' and that the entire next generation as a whole would fail. Nowgamer recently contacted him, and the now managing director of PikPok definitely hasn't changed his grim predictions of the future. If what he says is true, we could see one of the Big Three pull a Dreamcast this generation, and drop out of the console race altogether.
“In my opinion, the market is now unsustainable for 3 dedicated game consoles, much less the myriad of new players jumping in. Indeed, it might not be sustainable for any dedicated consoles.”
“The environment is hostile enough to the traditional console that I think one or more of the big 3 will drop out completely, but I’m expecting all 3 to make losses without radical change to their business models (hence my calls for revamping of their digital offerings).”
“This new generation is arriving with all the challenges of the last generation unresolved in terms of low margins on hardware, high development budgets, limited shelf space, used commercial game sales, piracy etc.”
“On top of that they arrive facing increased competition for consumer attention via smartphones, tablets, and a resurgence in PC gaming.”
The entire concept behind his statements troubles me; I've had consoles all my life, and the thought of tablets and PCs completely obliterating the old standby is foreign and uncomfortable. That doesn't mean that the market is any healthier than he says, however, and surely he knows more than I do.
What would it mean for you if Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo took a dive in the next few years?