Super Mario Run made its iOS debut last month, and it quickly shot to the top of the mobile revenue charts. Unfortunately for Nintendo, it didn't stay there. Although it hit 50 million downloads in record time, Super Mario Run isn't the cash cow that other popular mobile games are, as it has a one-time payment of $10 and no microtransactions. So while millions upon millions have downloaded the auto-running app, only a small percentage actually put any money into it.
According to The Wall Street Journal (via data provided by market research firm Newzoo), Super Mario Run has been downloaded around 90 million times, but only around 3 million players paid the $10 to upgrade to the full game. The vast majority of Super Mario Run players are either content with the demo alone or don't feel it's worth $10.
Prior to launch, analysts predicted that Super Mario Run would eventually reach 1 billion downloads. If the current trend of 3.3% of gamers paying for the full experience continues, Nintendo can expect around 33 million paid downloads and around $330 million in revenue when it's all said and done. That's not exactly pocket change, but it's not on the level of games like Candy Crush and Pokémon GO, which explains why investors aren't too pleased.
Nintendo could still potentially change up the payment model down the line to attract new customers. They could also add in DLC at some point, but they currently have no plans to do so. If a recent Nintendo survey is anything to go by, however, it's more likely that they'll try to capitalize by releasing a sequel.
Source: The Wall Street Journal